St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Nolan ArenadoBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Matthew LiberatorePitching3.1 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Angels- Kevin PillarBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jose SorianoPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Donovan grounded into fielder's choice to third, Arenado scored on throwing error by third baseman Goodrum and Gorman scored on error, Donovan second, Herrera safe at third on error.10–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play10–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 18–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul8–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–5
- 8Pillar singled to right, Adell scored, Ward to second.8–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking8–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 18–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–4
- 7Herrera singled to left, Goldschmidt scored and Nootbaar scored, Gorman to third.8–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–4
- 7Gorman walked, Carpenter scored, Goldschmidt to second, Nootbaar to third.6–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 46–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 35–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 25–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 7Goldschmidt hit by pitch, Winn scored, Nootbaar to second, Carpenter to third.5–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–4
- 7Carpenter singled to right, Donovan scored and Herrera scored, Winn to third.4–4
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 32–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 7Winn singled to center, Gorman scored, Donovan to second, Herrera to third.2–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–4
- 7Arenado homered to left (378 feet).1–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 3Pillar homered to left (362 feet), Ward scored.0–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 3Schanuel reached on bunt single to third, Paris scored on throwing error by third baseman Arenado.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 51%
- ML STL -115 / LAA -105
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- STL: Elo 45.4%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- STL -104
- LAA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.3 – 4.2 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1462 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | −1 | STL: Matthew Liberatore: team allows 0.71 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · LAA: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +32 Elo | LAA 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 4.118th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.3 | Margin | −0.923rd of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 24th of 3010–13 | Road vs home | 5–1429th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–21 | 20–21 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–11 | 0–10 |
| Underdog | 12–10 | 20–11 |
| Overs–unders | 15–22–2 | 22–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 0–3 LAA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.