Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Hunter RenfroeBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 12 K
Angels- Willie CalhounBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Patrick SandovalPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Calhoun homered to right center (391 feet).4–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 6Calhoun doubled to right, Moniak scored.4–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 4Massey sacrificed to catcher, Blanco scored, Renfroe to second.4–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 4Renfroe singled to center, Fermin scored and Velázquez scored, Blanco to third.3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 4Fermin singled to left, Perez scored, Velázquez to second.1–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 51%
- ML KC -105 / LAA -115
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- LAA: Elo 48.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- LAA -104
- KC +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.2 – 4.3 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1464 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +2 | KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.68 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Patrick Sandoval: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +12 Elo | KC 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 5.126th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+1.1 | Margin | −0.924th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 15th of 309–9 | Road vs home | 5–1329th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–16 | 20–20 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–9 | 0–9 |
| Underdog | 17–7 | 20–11 |
| Overs–unders | 16–24–1 | 22–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 4–5 LAA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.