St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Paul GoldschmidtBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Lance LynnPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Angels- Nolan SchanuelBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Griffin CanningPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Donovan singled to left, Burleson scored.2–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 21–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–7
- 7Moniak singled to left, Calhoun scored.1–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–7
- 7Ward homered to left (366 feet).1–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 11–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 6Neto homered to left (376 feet).1–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 6Goldschmidt homered to right center (392 feet).1–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 1Pillar scored on Lynn wild pitch.0–4
- 1Pillar scored on Lynn wild pitch.0–4
- 1Pillar reached on infield single to first, Calhoun scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 1Calhoun doubled to right, Guillorme scored on error, Calhoun safe at third on throwing error by shortstop Winn.0–2
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 30–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Schanuel homered to right (359 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 53%
- ML STL -125 / LAA +105
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.6 pts
- STL: Elo 46.6%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- STL -114
- LAA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.4 – 4.1 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1458 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +3 | STL: Lance Lynn: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Griffin Canning: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +24 Elo | LAA 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.228th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −1.024th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 16th of 3012–13 | Road vs home | 5–1630th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–22 | 21–22 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–12 | 0–11 |
| Underdog | 13–10 | 21–11 |
| Overs–unders | 17–22–2 | 24–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 2–3 LAA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.