Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Zach NetoBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Adell doubled to center, Calhoun scored and O'Hoppe scored.9–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–3
- 8Semien homered to left (350 feet), Smith scored.7–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 17–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–1
- 6Ward homered to left center (395 feet).7–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 26–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 5Paris singled to right, Calhoun scored and O'Hoppe scored, Neto to third.6–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–1
- 5Calhoun singled to right, Pillar scored, O'Hoppe to second.4–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 4Neto homered to left (405 feet), Adell scored.3–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 3Pillar reached on infield single to first, Rengifo scored on throwing error by first baseman Lowe, Pillar to second.1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Heim homered to left (379 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 63%
- ML LAA +160 / TEX -190
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- TEX: Elo 60.4%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- TEX -170
- LAA +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.7 – 4.8 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1461 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −8 | LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +73 Elo | TEX 60.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 61.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 61.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.77th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.9 | Margin | +0.311th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 20th of 3010–12 | Road vs home | 11–1113th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–22 | 19–26 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 0–11 | 9–19 |
| Underdog | 22–11 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders | 25–19 | 19–25–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 6–7 TEX in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 13.