New York Mets at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Jeff McNeilBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Adrian HouserPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Xzavion CurryPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Marte homered to left (414 feet), Stewart scored.6–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging4–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 24–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–7
- 6Fry homered to right (334 feet), Brennan scored.4–7
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–7
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 24–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 14–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–5
- 6McNeil homered to right center (383 feet), Vientos scored.4–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 5Ramírez homered to right center (380 feet), Freeman scored.2–5
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 32–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 22–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 12–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 5Lindor singled to left, McNeil scored, Nido to second.2–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Vientos homered to center (430 feet).1–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 3Ramírez doubled to right, Freeman scored on error, Ramírez safe at third on fielding error by right fielder Marte.0–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 3Freeman doubled to left, Rocchio scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 3Rocchio doubled to right, Bo Naylor scored, Rocchio to third.0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 53%
- ML NYM +105 / CLE -125
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.4 pts
- CLE: Elo 56.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -114
- NYM +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.6 – 4.9 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −4 | NYM: Adrian Houser: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CLE: Xzavion Curry: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +47 Elo | CLE 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.86th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.54th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +1.34th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 18th of 3011–12 | Road vs home | 16–61st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–26 | 31–17 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–14 | 14–12 |
| Underdog | 13–12 | 17–5 |
| Overs–unders | 24–22 | 23–23–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 3–1 CLE in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.