New York Mets at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- J.D. MartinezBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching6.2 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Marlins- Josh BellBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Braxton GarrettPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Lopez singled to center, Bethancourt scored.9–10
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–10
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging9–9
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 19–9
- 9Bell homered to center (428 feet), Chisholm Jr. scored and De La Cruz scored.9–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–9
- 9Chisholm Jr. singled to right, Bruján scored.9–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–6
- 9Marte doubled to right, Taylor scored.9–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–5
- 9Martinez doubled to left, Nimmo scored.8–5
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 27–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 17–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–5
- 7Bell singled to right, Chisholm Jr. scored, De La Cruz to third.7–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 27–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–4
- 7Chisholm Jr. singled to right, Lopez scored.7–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–4
- 7Lopez doubled to left, Gordon scored.7–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–3
- 5McNeil singled to center, Marte scored and Bader scored.7–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 17–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–2
- 5Bader singled to center, Nimmo scored and Vientos scored, Marte to third.5–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 13–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 4Lindor grounded out to third, McNeil scored, Nido to second.3–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 53%
- ML NYM -125 / MIA +105
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- NYM: Elo 50.3%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NYM -114
- MIA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.9 – 3.6 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +1 | NYM: Luis Severino: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIA: Braxton Garrett: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +2 Elo | NYM 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.727th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 5.429th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.4 | Margin | −1.729th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 14th of 3010–10 | Road vs home | 7–1729th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–24 | 15–31 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–13 | 1–15 |
| Underdog | 13–11 | 14–16 |
| Overs–unders | 22–21 | 27–18–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 9–5 MIA in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 14.