Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Alec BohmBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching9.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Mets- Starling MarteBatting2-4
- Jose ButtoPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bohm hit a ground rule double, Castellanos scored, Stott to third.4–0
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–0
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 33–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 9Stott singled to right, Schwarber scored, Castellanos to second.3–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3Marsh walked, Schwarber scored, Bohm to second, Stott to third.2–0
- 3Pitch 8 : Ball 42–0
- 3Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 31–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3Bohm hit by pitch, Rojas scored, Stott to second, Schwarber to third.1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 53%
- ML PHI -125 / NYM +105
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- PHI: Elo 54.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -114
- NYM +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.9 – 3.6 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +11 | PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Jose Butto: team allows 0.55 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +33 Elo | PHI 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.315th of 30 |
| 8th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.5 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3014–6 | Road vs home | 10–1320th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–20 | 18–21 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 16–17 | 6–12 |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 12–9 |
| Overs–unders | 21–20–1 | 19–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 8–6 NYM in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 14.