Atlanta Braves at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Orlando ArciaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Max FriedPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Mets- J.D. MartinezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Christian ScottPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Martinez homered to right center (386 feet).4–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 9Acuña Jr. walked, Ozuna scored, Arcia to second, Harris II to third.4–0
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 44–0
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 33–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 4Harris II singled to center, Riley scored, d'Arnaud to second.3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Arcia homered to left (412 feet), Harris II scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 56%
- ML ATL -140 / NYM +120
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- ATL: Elo 57.3%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -128
- NYM +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.0 – 3.5 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1559 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +1 | ATL: Max Fried: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYM: Christian Scott: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +51 Elo | ATL 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 60.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 60.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 8th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+1.2 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 12th of 3010–8 | Road vs home | 9–1117th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–17 | 18–18 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 15–16 | 6–10 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 12–8 |
| Overs–unders | 12–20–3 | 18–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 12–5 NYM in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 17.