Atlanta Braves at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Charlie MortonPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose QuintanaPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Alonso singled to left, Marte scored.4–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 7Lindor homered to right (391 feet).4–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Olson homered to right center (396 feet), Riley scored.4–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Albies homered to left (356 feet).2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 3Acuña Jr. homered to center (461 feet).1–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 58%
- ML ATL -155 / NYM +130
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- ATL: Elo 55.3%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -140
- NYM +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.1 – 3.4 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1557 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | 0 | ATL: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +37 Elo | ATL 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 57.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 9th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+1.2 | Margin | +0.115th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 13th of 309–8 | Road vs home | 9–1016th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–17 | 18–17 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 14–16 | 6–10 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 12–7 |
| Overs–unders | 12–19–3 | 18–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 11–5 NYM in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 16.