Boston Red Sox at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Ceddanne RafaelaBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Kutter CrawfordPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Braves- Jarred KelenicBatting2-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Reynaldo LopezPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Arcia grounded into fielder's choice to first, Riley scored, Ozuna out at second.2–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 8Ozuna singled to center, Albies scored, Riley to third.2–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 6Rafaela reached on infield single to third, Grissom scored, McGuire to second, Cooper to third.2–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 6McGuire walked, Abreu scored, Cooper to second, Grissom to third.1–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 41–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 30–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 3Kelenic homered to right (368 feet), d'Arnaud scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 63%
- ML BOS +160 / ATL -190
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- ATL: Elo 60.8%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- ATL -170
- BOS +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.7 – 4.8 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +5 | BOS: Kutter Crawford: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Reynaldo Lopez: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +76 Elo | ATL 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 59.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.13rd of 30 |
| 4th of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.010th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+1.2 | Margin | +1.18th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 5th of 3012–7 | Road vs home | 11–41st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–17 | 15–17 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 4–11 | 12–16 |
| Underdog | 14–6 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 14–19–2 | 12–17–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 3–1 ATL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.