Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Ronald Acuna Jr.Batting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Charlie MortonPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Dodgers- Teoscar HernandezBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Gavin StonePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 11Pages singled to center, Smith scored, T. Hernández to second.3–4
- 11Pitch 8 : Ball In Play3–4
- 11Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 11Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 11Pitch 5 : Ball 33–4
- 11Pitch 4 : Ball 23–4
- 11Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 11Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–4
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 10Ohtani singled to center, Taylor scored.3–3
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 13–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 10Arcia hit sacrifice fly to left, Williams scored.3–2
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 8Acuña Jr. homered to left center (378 feet).2–2
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 32–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking2–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 4T. Hernández homered to right center (388 feet).1–2
- 4Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball 21–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 11–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 3Smith singled to center, Ohtani scored.1–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 52%
- ML ATL +100 / LAD -120
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- LAD: Elo 50.9%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- LAD -109
- ATL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.7 – 4.8 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1560 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −8 | ATL: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Gavin Stone: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +6 Elo | LAD 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.4 | Runs scored | 5.42nd of 30 |
| 6th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 3.910th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.7 | Margin | +1.53rd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 7th of 309–5 | Road vs home | 9–79th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–15 | 16–17 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 12–15 | 16–15 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 0–2 |
| Overs–unders | 11–15–3 | 18–14–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 0–9–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 4–3 LAD in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.