Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Will SmithBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- James PaxtonPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting2-5
- Tommy HenryPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ohtani singled to left, Rojas scored, Betts to second.8–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–4
- 6Smith homered to center (407 feet).7–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–4
- 5Grichuk hit sacrifice fly to center, Walker scored, Suárez to third.6–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 36–3
- 5Gurriel Jr. scored on Paxton wild pitch, Suárez to second on wild pitch by Paxton, Walker to third on wild pitch by Paxton.6–3
- 5Gurriel Jr. scored on Paxton wild pitch, Suárez to second on wild pitch by Paxton, Walker to third on wild pitch by Paxton.6–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 26–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 5Suárez singled to left, Alexander scored, Walker to second, Gurriel Jr. to third.6–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging6–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 5Pages doubled to left, Smith scored and T. Hernández scored, E. Hernández to third.6–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–1
- 5T. Hernández hit a ground rule double, Ohtani scored and Freeman scored, Smith to third.4–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 2Pages hit sacrifice fly to center, Muncy scored, E. Hernández to third.2–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2E. Hernández doubled to left, T. Hernández scored, Muncy to third.1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Walker hit sacrifice fly to center, Alexander scored, Marte to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 56%
- ML LAD -140 / ARI +120
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- LAD: Elo 55.6%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- LAD -128
- ARI +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.5 – 5.0 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −12 | LAD: James Paxton: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ARI: Tommy Henry: team allows 0.59 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +39 Elo | LAD 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 58.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 58.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.3 | Runs scored | 5.33rd of 30 |
| 9th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+1.3 | Margin | +1.08th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 6th of 308–4 | Road vs home | 7–613th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–16 | 14–15 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 14–14 | 6–8 |
| Underdog | 0–2 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders | 17–12–1 | 12–16–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 8–8 ARI in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 16.
- Oct 11LAD 2 @ ARI 4PlayoffsPicked LAD 50%Miss
- Oct 9ARI 4 @ LAD 2PlayoffsPicked LAD 56%Miss
- Oct 7ARI 11 @ LAD 2PlayoffsPicked LAD 56%Miss
- Aug 30ARI 0 @ LAD 7Picked LAD 56%Hit
- Aug 29ARI 1 @ LAD 9Picked LAD 56%Hit
- Aug 28ARI 4 @ LAD 7Picked LAD 56%Hit
- Aug 9LAD 2 @ ARI 0Picked LAD 50%Hit
- Aug 8LAD 5 @ ARI 4Picked LAD 50%Hit