Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Will SmithBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Landon KnackPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Diamondbacks- Christian WalkerBatting3-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Bryce JarvisPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Walker homered to left (426 feet), Marte scored.3–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 10Smith hit sacrifice fly to left, Lux scored.3–2
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball - PitchTimerViolation-Pitcher 12–2
- 8Moreno singled to right, Pederson scored.2–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 22–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 6Smith scored on a balk, E. Hernández to second on a balk.2–1
- 6Smith scored on a balk, E. Hernández to second on a balk.2–1
- 5Pages scored on Mantiply wild pitch, Betts to second on wild pitch by Mantiply, Rojas to third on wild pitch by Mantiply.1–1
- 5Pages scored on Mantiply wild pitch, Betts to second on wild pitch by Mantiply, Rojas to third on wild pitch by Mantiply.1–1
- 4Walker homered to left center (412 feet).0–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 56%
- ML LAD -140 / ARI +120
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- LAD: Elo 55.7%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- LAD -128
- ARI +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.5 – 5.0 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | +6 | LAD: Landon Knack: team allows 0.77 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · ARI: Jordan Montgomery: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +40 Elo | LAD 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.4 | Runs scored | 5.34th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.4 | Margin | +0.89th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 3rd of 309–4 | Road vs home | 7–714th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–16 | 14–16 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 15–14 | 6–8 |
| Underdog | 0–2 | 8–8 |
| Overs–unders | 18–12–1 | 13–16–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 9–8 ARI in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 17.
- Apr 29LAD 8 @ ARI 4Picked LAD 56%Hit
- Oct 11LAD 2 @ ARI 4PlayoffsPicked LAD 50%Miss
- Oct 9ARI 4 @ LAD 2PlayoffsPicked LAD 56%Miss
- Oct 7ARI 11 @ LAD 2PlayoffsPicked LAD 56%Miss
- Aug 30ARI 0 @ LAD 7Picked LAD 56%Hit
- Aug 29ARI 1 @ LAD 9Picked LAD 56%Hit
- Aug 28ARI 4 @ LAD 7Picked LAD 56%Hit
- Aug 9LAD 2 @ ARI 0Picked LAD 50%Hit