Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Ronald Acuna Jr.Batting3-4
- Bryce ElderPitching3.1 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Dodgers- Max MuncyBatting4-5, 3 HR, 4 RBI
- Tyler GlasnowPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8Muncy homered to left center (371 feet).2–11
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–11
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–10
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–10
- 7Betts reached on infield single to second, Pages scored and Outman scored.2–10
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–10
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–8
- 7Muncy homered to right center (404 feet).2–8
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–8
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 32–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–7
- 7Arcia grounded out to second, d'Arnaud scored.2–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–7
- 4Smith singled to left, Ohtani scored, Freeman to second.1–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–7
- 4Freeman singled to right, Betts scored, Ohtani to third.1–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 4Ohtani singled to left, Lux scored, Ohtani to second, Betts to third.1–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 4Pages homered to left center (412 feet).1–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 4Riley singled to center, Acuña Jr. scored.1–3
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 20–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 10–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 3Ohtani homered to right center (392 feet).0–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 64%
- ML ATL +165 / LAD -195
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.8 pts
- LAD: Elo 55.8%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- LAD -175
- ATL +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 3.6 – 4.9 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1559 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +24 | ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 1.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +41 Elo | LAD 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 59.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 59.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.3 | Runs scored | 5.32nd of 30 |
| 9th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 3.910th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.6 | Margin | +1.52nd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 9th of 309–6 | Road vs home | 10–78th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–15 | 16–18 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 12–15 | 16–16 |
| Underdog | 3–0 | 0–2 |
| Overs–unders | 11–16–3 | 18–15–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 0–10 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 4–4 LAD in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.