Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Marcell OzunaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Max FriedPitching7.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting4-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- James PaxtonPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ohtani homered to center (464 feet).1–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–5
- 7Ozuna homered to right center (373 feet).1–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 10–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–4
- 6T. Hernández homered to center (406 feet), Freeman scored.0–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 1Ohtani homered to center (412 feet), Betts scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 57%
- ML ATL -145 / LAD +125
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.1 pts
- ATL: Elo 49.0%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- ATL -133
- LAD +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.6 – 3.9 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1557 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | 0 | ATL: Max Fried: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAD: James Paxton: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +7 Elo | LAD 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 5.51st of 30 |
| 10th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.89th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.2 | Margin | +1.71st of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 12th of 309–7 | Road vs home | 11–78th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–16 | 17–18 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 12–15 | 17–16 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 0–2 |
| Overs–unders | 12–16–3 | 19–15–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 4–5 LAD in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.