Boston Red Sox at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Connor WongBatting2-4
- Nick PivettaPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Braves- Marcell OzunaBatting2-3, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Chris SalePitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 3Ozuna homered to center (413 feet).0–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–5
- 1Arcia homered to right (349 feet).0–4
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–4
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 1Ozuna homered to right (372 feet), Riley scored and Olson scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 64%
- ML BOS +170 / ATL -200
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.6 pts
- ATL: Elo 56.7%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -180
- BOS +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.6 – 4.9 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +22 | +2 | BOS: Nick Pivetta: team allows 1.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · ATL: Chris Sale: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +47 Elo | ATL 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 66.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 65.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.14th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.010th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+1.1 | Margin | +1.17th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 7th of 3012–8 | Road vs home | 12–41st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–18 | 16–17 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–11 | 13–16 |
| Underdog | 14–7 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 14–20–2 | 12–18–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 3–2 ATL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.