Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Johan RojasBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Marlins- Josh BellBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Trevor RogersPitching3.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bell doubled to left, Myers scored and Bethancourt scored.8–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 18–0
- 8Harper doubled to center, Realmuto scored.8–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–0
- 7Rojas homered to left center (388 feet).7–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–0
- 5Rojas grounded into fielder's choice to third, Merrifield scored on error, Pache safe at second on fielding error by third baseman Burger, Pache safe at third on error.6–0
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 25–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 15–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 4Schwarber singled to right, Sosa scored and Pache scored.5–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 4Pache doubled to right, Merrifield scored, Sosa to third.3–0
- 4Pitch 8 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball 32–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 22–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 12–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Rojas singled to center, Sosa scored, Rojas to second.2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Castellanos homered to right center (400 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 63%
- ML PHI -190 / MIA +160
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.4 pts
- PHI: Elo 66.4%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- PHI -170
- MIA +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.3 – 3.2 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1458 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +19 | −27 | PHI: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.93 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Trevor Rogers: team allows 1.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +118 Elo | PHI 66.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 61.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 61.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 3.725th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 5.729th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.4 | Margin | −2.028th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3011–5 | Road vs home | 5–1529th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–19 | 10–29 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 14–16 | 1–15 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 9–14 |
| Overs–unders | 17–20–1 | 22–16–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 8–7 MIA in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 15.
- Oct 4MIA 1 @ PHI 7PlayoffsPicked PHI 55%Hit
- Oct 3MIA 1 @ PHI 4PlayoffsPicked PHI 55%Hit
- Sep 10MIA 5 @ PHI 4Picked PHI 55%Miss
- Sep 9MIA 4 @ PHI 8Picked PHI 54%Hit
- Sep 8MIA 3 @ PHI 2Picked PHI 54%Miss
- Aug 3PHI 4 @ MIA 2Picked MIA 52%Miss
- Aug 2PHI 8 @ MIA 9Picked MIA 52%Hit
- Aug 1PHI 3 @ MIA 1Picked MIA 52%Miss