Miami Marlins at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jazz Chisholm Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- George SorianoPitching3.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Dodgers- Max MuncyBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching8.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6De La Cruz homered to left (383 feet).2–8
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–8
- 3Lux homered to right (379 feet), T. Hernández scored.1–8
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–8
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–6
- 3Muncy to home on throwing error by catcher Bethancourt, T. Hernández to third on error.1–6
- 3Muncy to home on throwing error by catcher Bethancourt, T. Hernández to third on error.1–6
- 3Muncy to home on throwing error by catcher Bethancourt, T. Hernández to third on error.1–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 3Pages hit sacrifice fly to right, Smith scored, Muncy to third.1–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 1Muncy homered to left center (381 feet), Ohtani scored, Freeman scored and Smith scored.1–4
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 1Chisholm Jr. homered to right center (404 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 74%
- ML MIA +270 / LAD -340
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.7 pts
- LAD: Elo 65.4%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- LAD -286
- MIA +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 2.6 – 4.9 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1461 | 1561 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −4 | MIA: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +110 Elo | LAD 65.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 68.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 68.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 303.8 | Runs scored | 5.51st of 30 |
| 29th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 3.77th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.9 | Margin | +1.81st of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 27th of 305–12 | Road vs home | 13–75th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–27 | 19–18 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–15 | 18–16 |
| Underdog | 9–12 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 21–15–1 | 20–16–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 3–4 LAD in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.