Miami Marlins at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Nick GordonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Roddery MunozPitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Walker BuehlerPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 3T. Hernández homered to left (418 feet).3–6
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 2Outman homered to center (437 feet), Lux scored.3–5
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–5
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 23–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 13–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–5
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 2Gordon homered to right (367 feet).3–3
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 33–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 23–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 1Freeman homered to left center (388 feet).2–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 1Ohtani homered to center (441 feet), Betts scored.2–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 22–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 1J. Sánchez singled to right, De La Cruz scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1De La Cruz singled to center, Chisholm Jr. scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball 31–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 74%
- ML MIA +270 / LAD -340
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.0 pts
- LAD: Elo 65.1%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- LAD -286
- MIA +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.1 – 5.4 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1559 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +2 | MIA: Roddery Munoz: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · LAD: Walker Buehler (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +108 Elo | LAD 65.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 67.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 67.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 303.8 | Runs scored | 5.51st of 30 |
| 29th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 3.78th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.9 | Margin | +1.81st of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 26th of 305–11 | Road vs home | 12–77th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–26 | 18–18 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–15 | 17–16 |
| Underdog | 9–11 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 20–15–1 | 19–16–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 3–3 LAD in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.