Miami Marlins at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Bryan De La CruzBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryan WeathersPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Dodgers- Teoscar HernandezBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Gavin StonePitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6T. Hernández homered to center (383 feet), Freeman scored.1–3
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 31–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 4De La Cruz homered to left (395 feet).1–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1T. Hernández singled to right, Freeman scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 69%
- ML MIA +215 / LAD -260
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- LAD: Elo 67.1%, market 69.5%
- Fair odds
- LAD -228
- MIA +228 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.3 – 5.2 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1459 | 1563 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −6 | MIA: Ryan Weathers: team allows 0.46 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAD: Gavin Stone: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +124 Elo | LAD 67.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 72.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 71.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 69.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 303.7 | Runs scored | 5.61st of 30 |
| 29th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 3.76th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−2.0 | Margin | +1.91st of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 27th of 305–13 | Road vs home | 14–75th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–28 | 20–18 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–15 | 19–16 |
| Underdog | 9–13 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 22–15–1 | 21–16–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 3–5 LAD in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.