Atlanta Braves at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Jarred KelenicBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Mets- Brandon NimmoBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Nimmo homered to center (396 feet), McNeil scored.3–4
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 33–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 23–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 8Ozuna singled to center, Short scored.3–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Alonso doubled to center, Lindor scored.2–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 6Ozuna singled to center, Short scored, Olson to second.2–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 3Alonso singled to left, Stewart scored, Lindor to third.1–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Kelenic homered to right (368 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 50%
- ML ATL -110 / NYM -110
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.9 pts
- NYM: Elo 44.1%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- NYM -100
- ATL -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 3.8 – 3.8 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1560 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | −7 | ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.71 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Luis Severino: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +41 Elo | ATL 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.315th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.3 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 7th of 3011–8 | Road vs home | 9–1222nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–17 | 18–19 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 16–16 | 6–10 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 12–9 |
| Overs–unders | 12–21–3 | 18–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 13–5 NYM in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 18.