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Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast

Final/10

Away

Phillies

28-13

6–7

at

Home

Marlins

11-31

PHI 65%MIA 35%

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Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.

MIA75%50%75%PHIStart123456789Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Phillies
  • Nick CastellanosBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
  • Zack WheelerPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Marlins
  • Josh BellBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
  • Braxton GarrettPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 8 K

Scoring summary

  • 10Rivera singled to right, Fortes scored, Bell to second.6–7
  • 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–7
  • 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking6–6
  • 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging6–6
  • 10Pitch 1 : Ball 16–6
  • 6Marsh hit sacrifice fly to center, Sosa scored.6–6
  • 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–6
  • 6Pitch 3 : Ball 25–6
  • 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–6
  • 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–6
  • 6Sosa tripled to left, Harper scored and Stott scored.5–6
  • 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–6
  • 6Pitch 3 : Ball 13–6
  • 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
  • 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
  • 4Chisholm Jr. tripled to center, Lopez scored.3–6
  • 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–6
  • 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–5
  • 4Pitch 3 : Ball 23–5
  • 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–5
  • 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
  • 4Bethancourt sacrificed to first, Bruján scored, Lopez to second.3–5
  • 3Bell homered to center (411 feet), Chisholm Jr. scored and Burger scored.3–4
  • 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–4
  • 3Pitch 4 : Ball 33–1
  • 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
  • 3Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
  • 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
  • 2J. Sánchez hit a ground rule double, Bell scored.3–1
  • 2Pitch 8 : Ball In Play3–1
  • 2Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
  • 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
  • 2Pitch 5 : Ball 33–0
  • 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
  • 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
  • 2Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
  • 2Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
  • 1Castellanos homered to center (408 feet), Bohm scored and Harper scored.3–0
  • 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Phillies 65%

SolidMiss
PHI 65%MIA 35%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.

Market
PHI 65%
ML PHI -210 / MIA +175
Pre-line forecast
PHI 66%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
PHI 62%
Ratings vs. market
−3.2 pts
PHI: Elo 61.9%, market 65.1%
Fair odds
PHI -186
MIA +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
PHI 4.4 – 3.1 MIA
Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorPHIMIAWhy
Team rating15531454Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers+4+1PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Braxton Garrett: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsPHI +84 EloPHI 61.9%
Market-implied ratingsPHI 67.1%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastPHI 66.4%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastPHI 65.1%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.

Try another venue →
Philadelphia Phillies and Miami Marlins compared, with each team's league rank
PHIStatMIA
2nd of 305.2Runs scored3.628th of 30
5th of 303.6Runs allowed5.830th of 30
2nd of 30+1.6Margin−2.230th of 30
1st of 309–1Last 103–727th of 30
1st of 3013–5Road vs home5–1730th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

PhilliesMarlins
14001450150015501600league averageAprJulOctJanAprJulOct

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonPHIMIA
Run line21–1910–31
Last 106–42–8
Favorite16–161–15
Underdog5–39–16
Overs–unders19–20–124–16–1
Overs–unders, last 106–47–3

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

PHI 10–7 MIA in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 17.