Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Bryson StottBatting2-5, 4 RBI
- Taijuan WalkerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Marlins- Otto LopezBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lopez homered to left center (421 feet), Bruján scored.8–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–3
- 8Rojas singled to left, Sosa scored and Pache scored.8–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 26–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging6–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 8Pache singled to left, Stott scored, Pache to second, Sosa to second, Sosa safe at third on throwing error by left fielder Gordon.6–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–1
- 8Stott singled to right, Castellanos scored.5–1
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play5–1
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 34–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking4–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 24–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 6Stott tripled to right, Realmuto scored, Bohm scored and Castellanos scored.4–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 6Realmuto singled to left, Merrifield scored.1–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 5Bruján homered to right center (406 feet).0–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 53%
- ML PHI -125 / MIA +105
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.7 pts
- PHI: Elo 58.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -114
- MIA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.4 – 4.1 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1457 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | +2 | PHI: Taijuan Walker: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +63 Elo | PHI 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 58.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 3.628th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 5.830th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.5 | Margin | −2.129th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 1st of 3012–5 | Road vs home | 5–1629th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–19 | 10–30 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 15–16 | 1–15 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 9–15 |
| Overs–unders | 18–20–1 | 23–16–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 9–7 MIA in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 16.
- May 10PHI 8 @ MIA 2Picked PHI 63%Hit
- Oct 4MIA 1 @ PHI 7PlayoffsPicked PHI 55%Hit
- Oct 3MIA 1 @ PHI 4PlayoffsPicked PHI 55%Hit
- Sep 10MIA 5 @ PHI 4Picked PHI 55%Miss
- Sep 9MIA 4 @ PHI 8Picked PHI 54%Hit
- Sep 8MIA 3 @ PHI 2Picked PHI 54%Miss
- Aug 3PHI 4 @ MIA 2Picked MIA 52%Miss
- Aug 2PHI 8 @ MIA 9Picked MIA 52%Hit