Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Bryson StottBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Mets- J.D. MartinezBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 10Stott hit sacrifice fly to right, Harper scored.5–4
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 9Bohm hit by pitch, Clemens scored, Merrifield to second, Marsh to third.4–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 9Stott homered to right center (387 feet).3–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 22–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 7Taylor reached on infield single to shortstop, Alonso scored, Martinez to second.2–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–3
- 7Rojas grounded out to shortstop, Sosa scored, Marsh to third.2–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 3Martinez walked, Marte scored, Alonso to second, Lindor to third.1–3
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball 41–3
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 31–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 21–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 11–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 2Nido singled to center, Martinez scored, Bader to third.1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Martinez doubled to left, Alonso scored.1–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 51%
- ML PHI -105 / NYM -115
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- NYM: Elo 45.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- NYM -104
- PHI +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.7 – 3.8 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | −5 | PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.67 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYM: Sean Manaea: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +29 Elo | PHI 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.315th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.5 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3013–6 | Road vs home | 10–1220th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–20 | 18–20 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 16–17 | 6–11 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 12–9 |
| Overs–unders | 20–20–1 | 18–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 7–6 NYM in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 13.