Miami Marlins at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Bryan De La CruzBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Trevor RogersPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Tigers- Carson KellyBatting3-3
- Casey MizePitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 1De La Cruz homered to center (422 feet), Chisholm Jr. scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- DET 60%
- ML MIA +140 / DET -170
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- DET: Elo 61.4%, market 60.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -151
- MIA +151 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.8 – 4.7 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1456 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −27 | +1 | MIA: Trevor Rogers: team allows 1.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · DET: Casey Mize: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +81 Elo | DET 61.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 58.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 60.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.021st of 30 |
| 30th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 3.910th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−2.0 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 28th of 306–15 | Road vs home | 10–1219th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–31 | 19–23 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–15 | 5–17 |
| Underdog | 12–16 | 14–6 |
| Overs–unders | 26–17–1 | 22–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 3–2 DET in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.