Houston Astros at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Kyle TuckerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Justin VerlanderPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Tigers- Spencer TorkelsonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching6.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Torkelson homered to left (405 feet), Carpenter scored.9–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 29–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking9–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 19–1
- 9Baddoo scored on a balk.9–1
- 9Baddoo scored on a balk.9–1
- 9Meyers reached on infield single to third, Singleton scored, Loperfido to second.9–0
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 38–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul8–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 28–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–0
- 8Meyers singled to left, Diaz scored on error and Loperfido scored on fielding error by left fielder Canha.8–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–0
- 8Loperfido doubled to right, Singleton scored, Diaz to third.6–0
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 35–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul5–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 25–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 8Diaz singled to left, Alvarez scored, Singleton to second.5–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–0
- 7Dubón singled to right, Loperfido scored, Dubón to second, Meyers to third.4–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 7Meyers singled to left, Bregman scored, Loperfido to second.3–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 6Tucker homered to right (365 feet), Dubón scored.2–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 30–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 52%
- ML HOU +100 / DET -120
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- DET: Elo 48.8%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -109
- HOU +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.7 – 3.8 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −10 | HOU: Justin Verlander: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.52 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +8 Elo | HOU 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.120th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 3.810th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.9 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 27th of 305–13 | Road vs home | 9–1016th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–24 | 19–20 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 8–19 | 5–14 |
| Underdog | 5–5 | 14–6 |
| Overs–unders | 14–20–3 | 20–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 4–4 DET in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.