Houston Astros at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Yainer DiazBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Tigers- Kerry CarpenterBatting2-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 4Carpenter homered to left center (384 feet).2–8
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–8
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–7
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging2–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–7
- 4Diaz singled to left, Bregman scored, Singleton to second.2–7
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–7
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–7
- 4Bregman singled to left, Peña scored.1–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–7
- 2Carpenter homered to right (350 feet), Pérez scored.0–7
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–7
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 30–5
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–5
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–5
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 2Canha homered to left center (393 feet), McKinstry scored, Rogers scored and Greene scored.0–5
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–5
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 2Greene walked, Keith scored, Rogers to second, McKinstry to third.0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 40–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 30–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 59%
- ML HOU +135 / DET -155
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- DET: Elo 52.1%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- DET -143
- HOU +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.4 – 4.1 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +14 | HOU: Cristian Javier: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.72 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +14 Elo | DET 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.021st of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 3.910th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 27th of 305–12 | Road vs home | 8–1019th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–23 | 18–20 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–19 | 4–14 |
| Underdog | 5–4 | 14–6 |
| Overs–unders | 13–20–3 | 19–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 4–3 DET in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.