Houston Astros at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Kyle TuckerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Tigers- Matt VierlingBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Casey MizePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Diaz hit sacrifice fly to right, Singleton scored.5–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 8Bregman grounded into fielder's choice to third, Alvarez scored, Bregman second, Singleton to second, Singleton safe at third on fielding error by third baseman Vierling.4–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 8Peña singled to center, Tucker scored, Alvarez to second.3–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 8Alvarez singled to right, Altuve scored, Tucker to third.2–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 6Tucker homered to right (409 feet).1–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 3Vierling doubled to left, Ibáñez scored and Rogers scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 56%
- ML HOU -140 / DET +120
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.3 pts
- HOU: Elo 48.9%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -128
- DET +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.0 – 3.5 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +3 | HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Casey Mize: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +8 Elo | DET 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.021st of 30 |
| 28th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 3.910th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.8 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 28th of 304–12 | Road vs home | 8–918th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–23 | 18–19 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 7–19 | 4–14 |
| Underdog | 5–4 | 14–5 |
| Overs–unders | 13–19–3 | 19–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 3–3 DET in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.