New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose QuintanaPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Phillies- Alec BohmBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Taijuan WalkerPitching3.1 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 11Stott grounded into fielder's choice to second, Castellanos scored, Rojas out at second, Marsh to third.6–5
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–5
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–5
- 11Martinez scored on Alvarado wild pitch, Bader to third on wild pitch by Alvarado.6–4
- 11Martinez scored on Alvarado wild pitch, Bader to third on wild pitch by Alvarado.6–4
- 11Martinez singled to right, Lindor scored.5–4
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–4
- 9Stott singled to right, Marsh scored.4–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 8Alonso scored on Hoffman wild pitch, Bader to third on wild pitch by Hoffman.4–3
- 8Alonso scored on Hoffman wild pitch, Bader to third on wild pitch by Hoffman.4–3
- 8Bader singled to center, Taylor scored on error, Alonso to second, Bader safe at second on error, Alonso safe at third on throwing error by center fielder Marsh.3–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 7Schwarber doubled to right, Stott scored.2–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 6Castellanos hit sacrifice fly to left, Harper scored.2–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 6Bohm singled to left, Realmuto scored on error, Bohm to second, Bohm safe at second on throwing error by left fielder Taylor, Harper safe at third on error.2–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Baty doubled to right, Marte scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 32–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Alonso homered to center (439 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 57%
- ML NYM +125 / PHI -145
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.4 pts
- PHI: Elo 60.6%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -133
- NYM +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.9 – 4.6 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1557 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −10 | NYM: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PHI: Taijuan Walker: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +75 Elo | PHI 60.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 56.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.31st of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.67th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +1.62nd of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 14th of 309–9 | Road vs home | 16–72nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–23 | 24–20 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–12 | 18–17 |
| Underdog | 12–11 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 20–21 | 22–21–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 6–10 PHI in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 16.