New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- J.D. MartinezBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Joey LucchesiPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Nido singled to center, McNeil scored.5–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–10
- 8McNeil doubled to right, Vientos scored.4–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–10
- 8Martinez homered to left center (403 feet).3–10
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–10
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 22–10
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–10
- 7Rojas reached on infield single to third, Stott scored, Sosa to third.2–10
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–10
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–9
- 7Pache hit sacrifice fly to center, Bohm scored, Sosa to second, Stott to third.2–9
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–8
- 7Sosa grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Harper scored, Stott safe at second on fielding error by shortstop Lindor, Bohm to third.2–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–8
- 6Schwarber reached on infield single to second, Sosa scored on throwing error by second baseman McNeil.2–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–6
- 6Pache grounded out to third, Stott scored, Sosa to second.2–6
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–6
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 32–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking2–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 5Harper doubled to center, Rojas scored and Schwarber scored, Realmuto thrown out at home.2–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 5Realmuto singled to right, Pache scored, Schwarber to second, Rojas to third.2–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Schwarber walked, Sosa scored, Rojas to second, Pache to third.2–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 42–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 32–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 65%
- ML NYM +175 / PHI -210
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- PHI: Elo 62.9%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -186
- NYM +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.1 – 4.4 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +19 | NYM: Joey Lucchesi: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · PHI: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.93 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +92 Elo | PHI 62.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 58.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.23rd of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.67th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +1.62nd of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 12th of 309–8 | Road vs home | 15–74th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–22 | 23–20 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–12 | 17–17 |
| Underdog | 12–10 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 19–21 | 21–21–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 6–9 PHI in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 15.