New York Mets at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- J.D. MartinezBatting2-3
- Christian ScottPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Marlins- Nick FortesBatting3-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Burger reached on infield single to shortstop, Chisholm Jr. scored, Bell out at third in rundown.0–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–8
- 8Bell grounded into fielder's choice to second, Fortes scored, De La Cruz out at second, Chisholm Jr. to third.0–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 10–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–7
- 6De La Cruz hit sacrifice fly to center, Fortes scored.0–6
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–6
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 20–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–5
- 6Bruján scored on Walker wild pitch, Fortes to third on wild pitch by Walker.0–5
- 6Bruján scored on Walker wild pitch, Fortes to third on wild pitch by Walker.0–5
- 2Fortes homered to left center (396 feet), Gordon scored and Bruján scored.0–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Lopez hit sacrifice fly to center, J. Sánchez scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 52%
- ML NYM -120 / MIA +100
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- NYM: Elo 52.4%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- NYM -109
- MIA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.8 – 3.7 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1458 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | 0 | NYM: Christian Scott: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · MIA: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +17 Elo | NYM 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.627th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.630th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −1.929th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 12th of 3010–9 | Road vs home | 6–1730th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–23 | 14–31 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–12 | 1–15 |
| Underdog | 13–11 | 13–16 |
| Overs–unders | 21–21 | 26–18–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 9–4 MIA in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 13.