New York Mets at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Brandon NimmoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Marlins- Dane MyersBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Sixto SanchezPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Baty singled to right, Marte scored, Taylor to third.7–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–3
- 9Nimmo homered to right center (395 feet), Lindor scored.6–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 7Bethancourt homered to right (364 feet).4–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–2
- 2Myers homered to left (382 feet), Rivera scored.4–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 1Bader singled to center, Stewart scored and Taylor scored, Baty to second.4–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Taylor doubled to center, Lindor scored and Nimmo scored, Stewart to third.2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 56%
- ML NYM -140 / MIA +120
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.5 pts
- NYM: Elo 49.7%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- NYM -128
- MIA +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.5 – 4.0 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +3 | NYM: Sean Manaea: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIA: Sixto Sanchez: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +2 Elo | MIA 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.924th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.529th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.4 | Margin | −1.729th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 16th of 3010–11 | Road vs home | 8–1729th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–25 | 16–31 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–14 | 1–15 |
| Underdog | 13–11 | 15–16 |
| Overs–unders | 23–21 | 28–18–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 9–6 MIA in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 15.