Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Jose MirandaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris PaddackPitching8.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Guardians- Will BrennanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Brennan homered to right (345 feet), Giménez scored and J. Naylor scored.2–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–5
- 9Buxton scored on error, Kirilloff safe at first on error by pitcher Clase, Castro to second.2–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 3Miranda homered to left center (379 feet).1–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1Giménez homered to center (412 feet), Freeman scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 51%
- ML MIN -105 / CLE -115
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.6 pts
- CLE: Elo 53.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CLE -104
- MIN +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.7 – 3.8 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +16 | MIN: Chris Paddack: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.80 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +26 Elo | CLE 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.86th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.65th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.25th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 9th of 3013–10 | Road vs home | 14–64th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–22 | 29–17 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 12–15 | 12–12 |
| Underdog | 11–7 | 17–5 |
| Overs–unders | 21–24 | 23–21–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 6–11 CLE in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 17.