Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Nolan SchanuelBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Reid DetmersPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Astros- Mauricio DubonBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching5.0 IP, 8 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Tucker singled to left, Dubón scored.9–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 19–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging9–6
- 6Neto homered to left (394 feet).9–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul8–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–6
- 5Adell homered to right (387 feet).8–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–6
- 5O'Hoppe homered to left (416 feet), Ward scored and Pillar scored.7–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–6
- 5Schanuel homered to right (368 feet), Calhoun scored and Neto scored.4–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–6
- 4Dubón homered to left (372 feet), Diaz scored.1–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 2Altuve homered to left (398 feet), Diaz scored and Dubón scored.1–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 2Diaz singled to center, Peña scored.1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Ward hit sacrifice fly to center, Schanuel scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 67%
- ML LAA +190 / HOU -225
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- HOU: Elo 61.7%, market 66.8%
- Fair odds
- HOU -201
- LAA +201 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.0 – 4.5 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +11 | LAA: Reid Detmers: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +83 Elo | HOU 61.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 62.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 62.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 66.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.722nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 16th of 3012–13 | Road vs home | 13–1313th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–22 | 18–27 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–11 | 12–22 |
| Underdog | 25–11 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders | 26–21 | 19–23–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 4–9 HOU in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 13.