Milwaukee Brewers at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Brice TurangBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Astros- Kyle TuckerBatting2-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Spencer ArrighettiPitching6.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Tucker homered to left (358 feet), Caratini scored and Altuve scored.4–9
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–9
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Foul4–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 34–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 24–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–6
- 7Yelich singled to right, Perkins scored, Turang to third.4–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 23–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 7Turang singled to right, Frelick scored and Ortiz scored, Perkins to second.3–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 21–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–6
- 6Tucker homered to right center (390 feet).1–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 5Singleton singled to center, Alvarez scored, Peña to second.1–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 1Meyers doubled to right, Bregman scored and Peña scored.1–4
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–4
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 31–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 21–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 11–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 1Singleton grounded out to second, Alvarez scored, Peña to second, Bregman to third.1–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Altuve homered to left center (366 feet).1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Yelich singled to right, Turang scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 56%
- ML MIL +120 / HOU -140
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.5 pts
- HOU: Elo 48.7%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -128
- MIL +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.0 – 4.5 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −7 | MIL: Colin Rea: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Spencer Arrighetti: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +9 Elo | MIL 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 56.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.722nd of 30 |
| 8th of 30+1.0 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 4th of 3015–9 | Road vs home | 12–1315th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–19 | 17–27 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–12 | 11–22 |
| Underdog | 18–7 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders | 27–18 | 18–23–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 3–2 HOU in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.