Oakland Athletics at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Abraham ToroBatting2-5
- JP SearsPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Astros- Alex BregmanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ronel BlancoPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Caratini singled to center, Cabbage scored.1–2
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 8Rooker singled to center, Toro scored.1–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Bregman homered to left (370 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 61%
- ML OAK +150 / HOU -175
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- HOU: Elo 63.8%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- HOU -159
- OAK +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 3.7 – 4.8 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1439 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +14 | OAK: JP Sears: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Ronel Blanco: team allows 0.71 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +98 Elo | HOU 63.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 62.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 62.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 5.127th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.9 | Margin | −0.520th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 22nd of 309–11 | Road vs home | 8–1226th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–20 | 15–24 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 9–19 |
| Underdog | 20–17 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders | 23–20 | 16–20–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 3–11 HOU in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 14.