Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- JJ BledayBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Joey EstesPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bleday homered to right center (412 feet), Toro scored.8–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 26–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–1
- 9Harris scored on Bazardo wild pitch, Toro to third on wild pitch by Bazardo.6–1
- 9Harris scored on Bazardo wild pitch, Toro to third on wild pitch by Bazardo.6–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 8Schuemann doubled to left, Langeliers scored, Ruiz scored and Rooker scored.5–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–1
- 3Rooker singled to right, Harris scored, Toro to third.2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 3Toro singled to right, Butler scored, Harris to second.1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Raleigh homered to right center (387 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 67%
- ML OAK +195 / SEA -230
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- SEA: Elo 64.6%, market 67.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -206
- OAK +206 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 3.5 – 5.0 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1439 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −6 | OAK: Joey Estes: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +104 Elo | SEA 64.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 60.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 61.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 67.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 303.9 | Runs scored | 3.824th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.55th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.9 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 18th of 308–9 | Road vs home | 12–89th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–18 | 18–21 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 9–13 |
| Underdog | 19–15 | 9–8 |
| Overs–unders | 20–20 | 12–25–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 1–13 SEA in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 14.