Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Lawrence ButlerBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Paul BlackburnPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 5 K
Mariners- Dylan MooreBatting3-4, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching4.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Butler singled to center, McCann scored, Soderstrom to third.1–8
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–8
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 10–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–8
- 7Moore singled to left, Raley scored, France to second.0–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–7
- 5Moore singled to left, Garver scored and Raleigh scored, Raley to second.0–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 4Moore homered to left (358 feet), France scored.0–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 4France doubled to left, Raleigh scored and Raley scored.0–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 4Raley doubled to center, Haniger scored, Raleigh to third.0–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 58%
- ML OAK +130 / SEA -150
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.5 pts
- SEA: Elo 63.5%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- SEA -138
- OAK +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 3.4 – 4.1 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1441 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +3 | OAK: Paul Blackburn: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +96 Elo | SEA 63.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 59.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 60.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 303.9 | Runs scored | 3.725th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 3.65th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.117th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 16th of 308–8 | Road vs home | 11–89th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–17 | 17–21 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 8–13 |
| Underdog | 19–14 | 9–8 |
| Overs–unders | 19–20 | 11–25–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 1–12 SEA in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 13.