Oakland Athletics at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- JJ BledayBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Ross StriplingPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Astros- Alex BregmanBatting3-3, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Spencer ArrighettiPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Caratini doubled to left, Bregman scored and Singleton scored.2–9
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–9
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 12–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–7
- 8Bregman doubled to right, Cabbage scored and Peña scored, Singleton to third.2–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–5
- 7Altuve singled to center, Meyers scored.2–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 7Bregman homered to left (385 feet).2–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 5Bleday doubled to left, Toro scored.2–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 4Bregman homered to left (380 feet).1–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 4Soderstrom singled to center, Rooker scored.1–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 3Tucker doubled to left, Altuve scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 30–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Singleton grounded out to third, Peña scored on throwing error by first baseman Soderstrom.0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 62%
- ML OAK +155 / HOU -185
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- HOU: Elo 60.5%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -166
- OAK +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 3.7 – 4.8 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1441 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −15 | OAK: Ross Stripling: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · HOU: Spencer Arrighetti: team allows 0.76 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +74 Elo | HOU 60.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 61.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 61.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.228th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.8 | Margin | −0.721st of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 18th of 309–10 | Road vs home | 7–1227th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–19 | 14–24 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 8–19 |
| Underdog | 20–16 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders | 22–20 | 15–20–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 3–10 HOU in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 13.