Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle MullerPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Mariners- Mitch GarverBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rooker homered to left (411 feet), Bleday scored.4–8
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–8
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 32–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 22–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–8
- 6Zavala homered to left (357 feet).2–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–8
- 6Toro homered to right (356 feet).2–7
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–7
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 11–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–7
- 5Garver homered to center (411 feet), Rodríguez scored.1–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–7
- 5Schuemann homered to left (388 feet).1–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 30–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 2Rodríguez homered to center (409 feet), Haggerty scored.0–5
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–5
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 10–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 2Moore hit sacrifice fly to center, Urías scored.0–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 2Haggerty singled to center, France scored, Urías to third.0–2
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 30–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 67%
- ML OAK +195 / SEA -230
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- SEA: Elo 63.8%, market 67.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -206
- OAK +206 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 3.0 – 4.5 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1443 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +5 | OAK: Alex Wood: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +98 Elo | SEA 63.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 65.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 64.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 67.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.725th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 3.65th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 16th of 309–9 | Road vs home | 12–911th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–18 | 18–22 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 9–14 |
| Underdog | 20–15 | 9–8 |
| Overs–unders | 21–20 | 13–25–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 2–13 SEA in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 15.