Milwaukee Brewers at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Joey OrtizBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Astros- Jeremy PenaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 5Peña homered to left center (380 feet), Caratini scored and Altuve scored.4–5
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–5
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 34–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 24–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking4–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–2
- 4Ortiz homered to right (355 feet), Bauers scored and Frelick scored.4–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 2Meyers homered to left (379 feet), Singleton scored.1–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 31–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 2Bauers homered to right center (412 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 31–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 51%
- ML MIL -115 / HOU -105
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.6 pts
- MIL: Elo 55.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIL -104
- HOU +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.8 – 3.7 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −24 | MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 1.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +40 Elo | MIL 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.511th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+1.0 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 4th of 3014–8 | Road vs home | 11–1215th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–19 | 17–25 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–12 | 11–20 |
| Underdog | 16–7 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders | 26–17 | 17–22–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 2–1 HOU in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.