Oakland Athletics at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- J.D. DavisBatting1-3
- Aaron BrooksPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Astros- Jeremy PenaBatting2-4
- Framber ValdezPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 4Dubón hit sacrifice fly to center, Peña scored.0–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Bregman hit sacrifice fly to right, Tucker scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 1Tucker doubled to right, Altuve scored on throwing error by second baseman Gelof.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 69%
- ML OAK +210 / HOU -250
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- HOU: Elo 63.2%, market 68.9%
- Fair odds
- HOU -221
- OAK +221 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 3.4 – 5.1 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1438 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +4 | OAK: Aaron Brooks (no track record yet) · HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +94 Elo | HOU 63.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 63.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 63.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 68.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 5.027th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.9 | Margin | −0.520th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 23rd of 309–12 | Road vs home | 9–1221st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–20 | 15–25 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 9–20 |
| Underdog | 21–17 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders | 23–21 | 16–21–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 3–12 HOU in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 15.