Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Andrew McCutchenBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Martin PerezPitching5.0 IP, 9 ER, 4 K
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Robert GasserPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7McCutchen homered to left (409 feet).2–10
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–10
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–10
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–10
- 6Contreras tripled to right, Frelick scored.1–10
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–10
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–9
- 6Chourio homered to left center (441 feet), Miller scored.1–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–9
- 5Ortiz homered to left (425 feet).1–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 4Frelick homered to left center (380 feet).1–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 3Sánchez homered to left (370 feet), Ortiz scored.1–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 3Contreras homered to right (350 feet), Chourio scored and Frelick scored.1–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 3Joe hit sacrifice fly to right, McCutchen scored.1–0
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 30–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 58%
- ML PIT +130 / MIL -150
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.7 pts
- MIL: Elo 61.7%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- MIL -138
- PIT +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.9 – 4.6 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +5 | PIT: Martin Perez: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIL: Robert Gasser: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +83 Elo | MIL 61.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 57.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 5.13rd of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.88th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 19th of 3010–12 | Road vs home | 11–910th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–23 | 23–19 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–15 | 7–12 |
| Underdog | 13–8 | 16–7 |
| Overs–unders | 20–21 | 25–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 8–11 MIL in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 19.