Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Cody BellingerBatting4-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Javier AssadPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Pirates- Nick GonzalesBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Jared JonesPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Madrigal singled to right, Happ scored and Busch scored, Madrigal to second.7–2
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 25–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–2
- 7Happ doubled to right, Bellinger scored, Morel to third.5–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 7Morel singled to right, Tauchman scored, Bellinger to second.4–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 6Amaya singled to right, Busch scored.3–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 5Bellinger doubled to right, Hoerner to third, Bellinger to third, Hoerner scored on error by catcher Grandal.2–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 1N. Gonzales singled to center, Cruz scored and McCutchen scored, Tellez to second.1–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Bellinger homered to right (390 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 54%
- ML CHC +110 / PIT -130
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.7 pts
- PIT: Elo 46.6%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- PIT -119
- CHC +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.6 – 3.9 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +19 | CHC: Javier Assad: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · PIT: Jared Jones: team allows 0.95 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +24 Elo | CHC 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.528th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.111th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.620th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 17th of 309–10 | Road vs home | 8–1019th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–16 | 15–21 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 6–10 | 5–13 |
| Underdog | 16–6 | 10–8 |
| Overs–unders | 16–21–1 | 16–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 10–3 PIT in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 13.