San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Jurickson ProfarBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Randy VasquezPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Cubs- Cody BellingerBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shota ImanagaPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Busch homered to right center (427 feet).2–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 8Morel hit sacrifice fly to center, Tauchman scored.2–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 8Profar homered to center (385 feet), Arraez scored.2–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 4Bellinger homered to right center (393 feet).0–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 61%
- ML SD +145 / CHC -170
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- CHC: Elo 56.9%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- CHC -154
- SD +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.3 – 5.2 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +26 | SD: Randy Vasquez: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 1.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +49 Elo | CHC 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 56.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.811th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.316th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 10th of 3010–7 | Road vs home | 12–53rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–18 | 22–14 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 10–14 | 6–9 |
| Underdog | 9–4 | 16–5 |
| Overs–unders | 22–15–1 | 16–19–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 6–5 CHC in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.