San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Luis CampusanoBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Yu DarvishPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Cubs- Christopher MorelBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Justin SteelePitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Gomes homered to left center (410 feet).6–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 16–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 6Morel homered to left center (372 feet), Tauchman scored.6–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–2
- 6Campusano doubled to right, Bogaerts scored, Kim scored and Solano scored.6–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–0
- 6Solano singled to center, Profar scored, Bogaerts to third.3–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 6Profar singled to center, Tatis Jr. scored and Cronenworth scored.2–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 51%
- ML SD -105 / CHC -115
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- CHC: Elo 54.0%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CHC -104
- SD +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.7 – 3.8 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −5 | SD: Yu Darvish: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Justin Steele: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +28 Elo | CHC 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.511th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 10th of 309–7 | Road vs home | 12–41st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–18 | 22–13 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–14 | 6–8 |
| Underdog | 8–4 | 16–5 |
| Overs–unders | 21–15–1 | 15–19–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 5–5 CHC in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.