Cincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Jeimer CandelarioBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nick MartinezPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting1-5, 3 RBI
- Yu DarvishPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Fairchild homered to center (407 feet).4–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 23–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 7Candelario homered to right (354 feet).3–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–6
- 6Tatis Jr. grounded into fielder's choice to second, Kim scored, Azocar third.2–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–5
- 6India singled to right, De La Cruz scored and Steer scored.2–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 5Machado scored on error, Merrill safe at first on fielding error by left fielder Steer.0–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 5Machado doubled to center, Cronenworth scored, Wade scored, Wade scored and Tatis Jr. scored.0–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Cronenworth singled to right, Tatis Jr. scored.0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SD 61%
- ML CIN +145 / SD -170
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.0 pts
- SD: Elo 50.7%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- SD -154
- CIN +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.3 – 4.2 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −12 | CIN: Nick Martinez: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SD: Yu Darvish: team allows 0.62 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +5 Elo | SD 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.712th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 13th of 307–6 | Road vs home | 6–1126th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–12 | 15–17 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 10–7 | 7–14 |
| Underdog | 7–5 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders | 15–13–1 | 17–14–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 4–3 SD in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.