Cincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nick LodoloPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 11 K
Padres- Jurickson ProfarBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Matt WaldronPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Machado singled to right, Cronenworth scored.5–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–2
- 9Espinal singled to right, Martini scored, Espinal to second, Candelario to third.5–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 3Steer doubled to left, Benson scored.4–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 2Candelario scored on a balk.3–1
- 2Candelario scored on a balk.3–1
- 2Espinal hit sacrifice fly to center, Martini scored, Candelario to third.2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Profar homered to left (370 feet).1–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1De La Cruz homered to center (443 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 50%
- ML CIN -110 / SD -110
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- SD: Elo 52.5%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- SD -100
- CIN -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.8 – 3.8 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −1 | CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SD: Matt Waldron: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +17 Elo | SD 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.118th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 16th of 306–6 | Road vs home | 6–1024th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–12 | 15–16 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 10–7 | 7–13 |
| Underdog | 6–5 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders | 15–12–1 | 17–13–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 3–3 SD in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.