San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Jurickson ProfarBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael KingPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Diamondbacks- Gabriel MorenoBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Moreno singled to center, Newman scored, Suárez to second.13–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play13–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking13–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking13–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 113–0
- 9Kim grounded out to shortstop, Campusano scored.13–0
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play13–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 212–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging13–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul13–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 112–0
- 9Campusano doubled to right, Merrill scored.12–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play12–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 211–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 112–0
- 7Kim homered to left center (382 feet), Merrill scored and Campusano scored.11–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play11–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking8–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 28–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 18–0
- 7Merrill singled to center, Bogaerts scored.8–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 17–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–0
- 7Profar homered to left center (395 feet), Machado scored.7–0
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 35–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 25–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 15–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–0
- 7Machado doubled to center, Tatis Jr. scored and Arraez scored.5–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–0
- 4Arraez singled to left, Bogaerts scored, Campusano to second.3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 4Campusano grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Profar scored.2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Machado singled to center, Arraez scored, Cronenworth to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 52%
- ML SD +100 / ARI -120
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- ARI: Elo 50.5%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- ARI -109
- SD +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.2 – 4.3 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +1 | SD: Michael King: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +3 Elo | ARI 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.415th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 12th of 308–6 | Road vs home | 8–919th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–17 | 15–18 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 10–14 | 6–8 |
| Underdog | 7–3 | 9–10 |
| Overs–unders | 19–15–1 | 13–19–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 7–7 ARI in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 14.