San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Diamondbacks- Eugenio SuarezBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Slade CecconiPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 5Suárez singled to center, Pederson scored.7–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 27–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 17–0
- 5Machado homered to left (381 feet), Tatis Jr. scored.7–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 35–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul5–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 25–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 5Tatis Jr. singled to left, Wade scored.5–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 4Merrill doubled to right, Machado scored.4–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Cronenworth homered to right (398 feet).3–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 4Tatis Jr. homered to left center (419 feet), Profar scored.2–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 52%
- ML SD -120 / ARI +100
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- SD: Elo 49.4%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- SD -109
- ARI +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.8 – 4.7 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +2 | SD: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Slade Cecconi: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +4 Elo | ARI 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.15th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.522nd of 30 |
| 18th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.611th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 12th of 307–6 | Road vs home | 8–815th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–17 | 15–17 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–14 | 6–8 |
| Underdog | 7–3 | 9–9 |
| Overs–unders | 19–14–1 | 13–18–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 2–7–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 6–7 ARI in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 13.